4.3 The impact of the quota in Option 1

The impact of the quota can be assessed by conducting a simulation based on the most recent
annual statistics available.51 The figures used in the simulation can be found in Table 6 and Table
7 in Annex C.

The models presented to the Member States did not however take account of the size of the
Member States, when GDP per capita is used. Whereas GDP per capita allows for a comparison of
economies that are very different in size, each Member State's size should be factored in, in
order to avoid situations where for example Luxembourg (which enjoys a high GDP per capita)
will be allocated a quota only based on the GDP per capita and density, without taking into
account the small size of the country. This is why the study team has chosen to include the
Member States‟ population as a criterion in the simulation of the effects of the two criteria
presented to the Member States. It should thus be emphasised that the Member States have not
seen the quotas presented below and have not had the opportunity to comment on them. The
options presented to the Member States only consisted of the two quotas presented above. The
quotas have been included into the report in order to illustrate the different ways in which several
criteria impact the distribution of beneficiaries of international protection and asylum seekers. As
will be presented in the following chapters, Member States also pointed to several other criteria that could have been taken into account in a quota system. One of them, expressed by several
Member States, was the integration capacity of the Member States, i.e. the existence of systems,
resources and the experience of the officials and other stakeholders in receiving refugees and
asylum seekers.
In order to assess the quota each Member State would have in terms of percentage of the total
number of international protection statuses or asylum applications, the GDP distribution, density
distribution and population distribution have been calculated (see Table 11 in Annex C). By
applying these distribution shares to the overall number of international protection statuses
granted in the European Union, and the overall number of asylum applications lodged in the
European Union (see Table 6 and Table 7 in Annex C), using four different weightings, the quota
for each Member State can be determined. The models presented below are not based on any
specific theoretical reasoning, but have been selected arbitrarily as a means to illustrate the type
of impact the change in weighting of different criteria would have on the quotas.
The density distribution has been calculated on the basis of the population density of each
Member State (population/km2) and a density threshold at 200, meaning that no asylum
seekers/beneficiaries of international protection would be allocated to the Member States with a
population density of >200 people/km2 under this criterion. The density threshold is not based
on any theoretical choice, other than the fact that it represents roughly the EU population density
average. It may be adjusted if considered necessary to achieve another pattern of distribution
based on density. The lower the density threshold, and the higher the weighting placed on
density, the greater the assumed capacity of the Member States with very low population
density. It should however be considered that the model does not elaborate on the reasons for
density (i.e. geographical reasons hindering settlement, such as mountains or deserts).
Placing a higher weight on the population density of a Member State, while keeping the density
threshold at 200, allocates a higher share of international protection holders and asylum seekers
to the Member States with low population density.
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